In the first of two special reports on the European sovereign debt crisis, we analyze the second bailout package for Greece that leaders of the European Union (EU) recently announced. Our calculations show that the package should stabilize the government’s debt-to-GDP ratio at approximately 160 percent over the next few

In the last Saxo Bank Quarterly Outlook, for Q2 2011, we came to the conclusion that U.S. Monetary Policy rates would remain on hold at least until the end of񎧛 and very possibly until 2013. At the time, this was by no means the consensus view; the economy seemed

With no further ado, the charts below are of each G-Ǫ currency versus an evenly weighted basket of the nine remaining G-10 peers. Each chart is indexed to 100 at 2500 trading days before the present trading day, which is about nine and half years ago. For more on our

The euro has been the worst-performing G10 currency over the past month as European sovereign debt concerns have resurfaced as a market theme. Also, the massive correction on commodity markets, the fact that money-market pricing of the ECB proved too aggressive and stretched long euro positioning ahead of the ECB

It has been difficult to separate the wheat from the chaff in the economic data. Rising energy prices, supply chain interruptions in the auto sector, and weather-related slowdowns have affected readings on both inflation and output. Financial markets have taken these gyrations in stride with global stock markets generally maintaining

The past month has seen significant volatility in the EUR/USD exchange rate. The euro trended higher against the USD for much of the period since our last Outlook. But since the ECB’s Governing Council meeting on 5 May, it has fallen sharply in response to Jean-Claude Trichet’s failure to mention

It becomes easy to see how one event could become a trigger for others. And, at this juncture, it is difficult to assess the final impact of Greek debt restructuring and the final reach of the chain of events, particularly because it is as yet unknown how the restructuring will

The dominating theme on the currency market remains relative monetary policy with the most visible implication being the depreciation of the dollar and not least against the euro. However, the clear trends seen over recent quarters are at risk of coming across bumps in the road. We look at

The rest of this year should see large swings in currencies, with each of the three super-major currencies facing huge challenges in the coming quarter. Namely, in the US: how will the Federal Reserve deal with the anticipation of the phase-out of QE2 and will it provide hints of QE3+?

Last week’s European Council meeting had generated expectations for a strong response from European governments to the debt crisis. • Although progress was made on a number of areas such as the establishment of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), key aspects for the short-term evolution of the crisis were unaddressed