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Global Markets: Managing Low Growth and Return Expectations in a More Volatile World

admin — Wed, 14 Jul 2010 18:43:11 +0000

The global economy is at a sensitive point in the cycle as it transitions from policy driven expansion to sustained private demand. Global purchasing manager’s surveys peaked in May, and the growth tailwind from the inventory rebuild is blowing with less force. We are at that point in the recovery

International Financial Outlook July 2010

admin — Mon, 12 Jul 2010 19:30:27 +0000

Overarching themes driving global financial markets have not changed significantly in the last month but some of the intensity has faded. Renewed euro buying relative to the dollar does not mean that concerns about the risk of sovereign debt default in Europe has gone away or that worries about the

Financial Markets Monthly - July 2010: Risks to the Global Economy Leave Investors Cautious

admin — Fri, 09 Jul 2010 14:59:24 +0000

In the past month, financial markets have been hit with a bad case of the jitters on worries that the global economy will not be able to withstand the implementation of fiscal austerity measures in Europe and slowing growth in some emerging economies. Central bankers too have assumed a more

Monthly Economic Outlook - July 2010

admin — Thu, 08 Jul 2010 13:47:45 +0000

The wave of disappointing economic reports this past month combined with the inability of the Administration to push additional stimulus through an election-wary Congress has reawakened fears about a double-dip. We continue to believe such fears are overblown. We remain concerned that so much stimulus is ending in such a

Global Markets: Trends in Low Places

admin — Wed, 16 Jun 2010 14:16:10 +0000

After the major market shakeout through May over European debt fears, we have begun to see a slightly better attitude when it comes to risk. Granted, financial markets have priced in a decent chance of a double-dip recession for advanced economies later this year. The economic data, on the other

FX Forecast Update: Still Some Headwind Left for the Euro

admin — Tue, 15 Jun 2010 16:16:41 +0000

The huge rescue package announced on 9 May only gave a brief boost to the euro and EUR/USD fell in the beginning of June for the first time in four years below 1.20. However, we doubt the trouble is over for the euro and now see EUR/USD testing 1.15 in

G-10 FX Forecasts

admin — Tue, 15 Jun 2010 11:53:05 +0000

Our base case scenario again assumes a risk-bearish trajectory for the medium to longer term. The short-term environment this time around has been extremely volatile, as often happens in risk averse markets, so we are least comfortable with the 1-month view, since the market can lurch around widely in a

International Financial Outlook June 2010

admin — Tue, 15 Jun 2010 09:47:37 +0000

Financial markets continued to gyrate wildly in the past month. That said, the package of support measures from European governments has helped to calm fears of imminent default in the so-called peripheral countries in the euro zone, like Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain. Nevertheless, a brief look at credit spreads,

Super-CAD At All Time High - Should It Be?

admin — Fri, 11 Jun 2010 08:11:48 +0000

The recent bout of risk aversion has seen USDCAD challenge the structural resistance around 1.0750-1.08 on a two occasions recently, first as a complacent market was caught way too short when the Flash Crash struck in early May, and then with the follow up bout of risk aversion that took

Monthly Economic Outlook - June 2010

admin — Wed, 09 Jun 2010 14:45:17 +0000

Our forecast continues to incorporate a significant slowdown during the second half of the year. After likely expanding at a 3.4 percent pace during the current quarter, real GDP is expected to slow to a mere 2 percent pace during the second half of 2010. Conditions over the past month