The dollar has followed a downward trend over the past six months, weakening against the currencies of other major economies and developing countries alike. Some observers claim that the dollar’s depreciation reflects unease among foreigners about the U.S. fiscal outlook. However, there is very little evidence to support this hypothesis….

One year has passed since Lehman Brothers folded, and the global economy has begun to recover. The decision by policy makers to met-out discretionary punishment to some financial firms and not others transformed a financial crisis into a global run on the bank, raising the cost of stabilizing both the…

Selling pressure on the dollar remained in August, as the US economic recovery lagged that of Germany and France, and even Japan. Sterling moved like the US dollar in the last month, with the pound sagging a little against the euro, but gaining versus the US currency. There are increasing…

Forecasts for economic growth during the second half of this year and 2010 have been steadily ratcheted up as most of the monthly economic indicators have come in better than expected. We have raised our own estimate modestly. We now see real GDP rising at a 3.7 percent annual rate,…

Upbeat economic data dominated in August especially in the United States where the improvement in housing statistics and auto sales stole the headlines. Globally, talk of the end of the recessions in Germany, France and Canada and more positive news from Australia bolstered expectations that the world economy is tracking…

Measured from the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the global financial crisis will have its one year anniversary this month. Lehman went into its final death spiral last September, imploding as the Fed and Treasury decided to use the demise of the relatively small investment bank as a lesson to Wall…