Forex traders hear a lot about Risk; whether the markets are tolerant, averse, or neutral. It is a headline that is bandied about on a regular basis. Quantifying the value of risk, and its forex impact, may be so much harder to do in the trading arena, than reporting each…

On August 19, Governing Council member Axel Weber said to the German newspaper Die Zeit that it is too early to withdraw stimulus measures. We fully agree with that, but while some misinterpreted this as meaning that more stimulation was needed we take note that the focus of the ECB…

The U.S. session, trader’s daily 09:45 EDT question; “Oh dear, do we now want to take a U.S. based trade and run the risk of a price move stranding things with no momentum, as 80% of U.S. sessions do?” The law of probability says that U.S. trade will not follow…

As we wrote last month, the prognosis for the global economy has improved, but conditions are still weak and we are anxiously awaiting the dose of fiscal and monetary medicine to restore the world economy to good health. Recent data reports have been “less bad” but still not strong enough…

Currency volatility remains intense, as should be expected at a time of severe economic stress. It is still not clear what the timing, intensity and strength of economic recovery will look like, though some trends, which we highlight below, are beginning to emerge. Further, the overlay of a financial market…

We believe the recession ended around the middle of this year and that a recovery has begun to take hold. Real GDP is expected to rise at a 3.4 percent pace in the third quarter and average a 3.0 percent pace for the second half of this year. The improved…

With a modicum of risk appetite returning and the VIX volatility index registering the lowest level of fear since the credit market crisis began, equities have rebounded significantly in the past five months. Equity markets took another leg higher in the last month, confounding some bears, moving major indices into…