Some of the key themes prevailing over the past month since our last publication include a resurgence of risk aversion, increased conjecture over U.S. dollar diversification and a general reassessment of asset prices to more closely align with the prevailing economic reality. To this end, it would seem as though…

Currency movements in the past month are suggesting doubt about whether the global economy is on a smooth glide path to recovery, the view that many participants had seemed to hold. Although currency volatility is still much less than at the start of the year, it has risen recently. The…

Historically speaking, crude oil and the Canadian dollar have had a very strong relationship, most of the time, the two assets having a high degree of correlation. This can be explained by the fact that Canada holds the second biggest oil reserves in the world after Saudi Arabia. Moreover, a…

The global economy remains in rough shape with data on second quarter activity showing some improvement but not enough to signal the end of the recession. Importantly, however, the tenor of economic forecasts has changed and after a period of persistent downward revisions to the growth outlook, projections are being…

Optimism about the apparent ending of the recession has been tempered by the reality of substantial further deterioration in employment conditions and ongoing struggles with state and local government budgets. Real GDP is expected to rise slightly during the third quarter as inventory liquidations slow dramatically and consumer spending is…

Technical analysis is sometimes studied as if it contains a grain of secret knowledge or portrays an intrinsic truth about currency movements. Often it is said that a specific chart formation will produce a specific price movement. Technical analysis does nothing of the sort. A chart is a reflection of…

As we head into the heart of the summer, markets seem to be taking a breather, with lighter trading volume, stocks and commodities holding onto recent gains (including the best quarterly gains in the stock market in 20 years), treasury yields edging off of recent highs, and currency trading bands…