Despite the volatility of monthly economic releases and policy prescriptions, surprisingly little in the outlook has deviated from the pattern of the recovery as outlined in our annual outlook published last December. Economic recovery is expected to start later this year. Weakness in consumer spending has begun to give way…

Despite the volatility of monthly economic releases and policy prescriptions, surprisingly little in the outlook has deviated from the pattern of the recovery as outlined in our annual outlook published last December. Economic recovery is expected to start later this year. Weakness in consumer spending has begun to give way…

A run of better than expected economic data has meant that financial market sentiment has shifted from worrying about how bad the economic downturn is going to be, to looking for when recovery will start. This is a big shift and explains why equity markets have bounced back and why…

Spring has brought with it not only the usual blossoms, but also slight signs of revival in the global economy. In particular, the U.S. economy has shown some encouraging signs of stabilization which has underpinned a guardedly optimistic view for the outlook. And as for the rest of the globe,…

Global financial markets appear to be viewing the green shoots of growth as viable with the MSCI world stock market index racking up another 16% in April and early May, LIBOR rates falling to record lows and credit spreads narrowing. The data on the global economy increasingly point to the…

The so called “green shoots” seen this spring have emerged as “less bad” data show the economic decline has clearly slowed its descent. April saw the stock market move sideways, consolidating a 30% gain off the recent market lows, even as the 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields surged above 3%…

Statistically speaking, correlation is the measured relationship between two units over a series of time. Correlation is measured on a range of -1 (perfect negative correlation) to 1 (perfect positive correlation). A positive correlation implies that the two units move in similar directions, the higher the correlation the closer and…