Dec
What Did You Do During The Depression, Daddy, by Ken McVay
What Did You Do During The Depression, Daddy?
According to financial experts interviewed on a recent “60 Minutes”
(12/14/2008), the Sub-Prime Mortgage Crisis in the United
States was only the tip of the iceberg.
That, they said, is because two other types of highly speculative mortgages
which were widely sold during the past 5 years are beginning to reset.
That is, the initial rates, some as low as 1%, are about to reset to much
higher rates, and another equally disastrous wave of defaults and foreclosures,
which has already begun, will probably result in another 8 million Americans
losing their homes in the next few years.
httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w_r-ASDViF8
Whitney Tilson is an investment fund manager who has attracted the
attention of fund managers themselves handling about $10 Billion dollars.
Tilson is the founder and Managing Partner of T2 Partners LLC and
the Tilson Mutual Funds. (http://www.T2PartnersLLC.com)
A year ago, Tilson predicted that sub-prime mortgages were just the tip of
the iceberg. As 60 Minutes revealed, “In 2007, Tilson teamed up with Amherst
Securities, an investment firm that specializes in mortgages. Amherst had done
some financial detective work, analyzing the millions of mortgages that were
bundled into those mortgage-backed securities that Wall Street was peddling.
It found that the sub-primes, loans to the least credit-worthy borrowers, were
defaulting. But Amherst also ran the numbers on what were supposed to be higher
quality mortgages.
“It was data we’d never seen before and that’s what made us realize, ‘Holy cow,
things are gonna be much worse than anyone anticipates,’” Tilson says.
The trouble now is that the insanity didn’t end with sub-primes. There were two
other kinds of exotic mortgages that became popular, called “Alt-A” and “option ARM.”
The option ARMs, in particular, lured borrowers in with low initial interest rates -
so-called teaser rates - sometimes as low as one percent. But after two, three or
five years those rates “reset.” They went up. And so did the monthly payment.
A mortgage of 迀 dollars a month could easily jump to $1,500.
Now the Alt-A and option ARM loans made back in the heyday are starting to reset,
causing the mortgage payments to go up and homeowners to default.”
(http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/12/12/60minutes/main4666112.shtml)
Whether you are a Real Estate professional or a long-haul trucker, this information
cannot come as good news. A massive financial disaster is already upon us, but,
if Tilson is correct, things are going to get much, MUCH worse in the next 2-4 years.
When asked just how big the coming disaster might get, Tilson said, “”Well, the
sub-prime is, was approaching $1 trillion, the Alt-A is about $1 trillion. And then
you have option ARMs on top of that. That’s probably another $500 billion to $600
billion on top of that.”
In short, friends, things are going to get immeasurably worse before they get better,
and the only question that matters is this: “What are you prepared to do about it?”
A world-wide financial meltdown, one greater in magnitude than the Great Depression of
1929, lies just around the corner.
Tens of Millions of jobs will be lost - yours perhaps among them. Will you take your
place in the soup lines, or will you seize the opportunity presenting itself and
take control of your future instead?
